Micron (MU) FQ4 FY2026 — Post-Earnings Verification & Preview Scorecard — 2026-09-30

Stock Price Calls:

• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='MU') → $1065.11, last close 2026-09-30 (session closed 16:00 EDT)
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='AMD') → $611.76
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='NVDA') → $228.38
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='AVGO') → $351.19
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='TSM') → $456.19
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='INTC') → $120.23
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='QCOM') → $184.04
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='MRVL') → $264.21

⚠️ Timing note (must read): the quotes above are the regular-session 16:00 EDT close (skill timestamp ≈ 2026-09-30 20:00Z). MU's FQ4 release and the 2:30 PM MT / 4:30 PM ET call happened after that close. Therefore none of these prices contains the FQ4 print; after-hours moves reported by media tonight cannot be read through the stock_price skill (its post-market price is the 16:00 close). Tomorrow's open is the definitive reaction datapoint.

1. ●Micron reported FQ4 FY2026 tonight and it was a beat on every headline line: revenue $54.23B vs $51.07B expected (CNBC) [T2: Cross-validated — Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/micron-mu-q4-earnings-report-2026.html], adjusted EPS $33.42 [T2: Cross-validated — snippet-level — Sources: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/micron-mu-q4-earnings-report-2026.html ; https://www.thestreet.com/latest-news/micron-q4-2026-earnings-call-live-updates-of-mu-earnings-outlook].
2. ●This morning's top prediction — revenue above the $50.0B guide midpoint with a $51.5–54.0B base case — is CORRECT: actual $54.23B sits at/slightly above the top of that band and +8.46% above the guide midpoint [T1-derived: (54.23 − 50.00) ÷ 50.00 = +8.46%; guidance base [T2 — https://theta.md/us-stock-analysis-tsmc/2026/08/30/micron-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview/]].
3. ●The FQ1 FY2027 guide did turn out to be the pivotal line, exactly as the preview argued — but the friction was gross margin and capex, not the revenue step-down: guide $60–63B smashed consensus $57.2B (MarketBeat) [T2 — snippet-level — Source: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/guidance-micron-technology-nasdaq-mu-releases-q1-2027-earnings-guidance-2026-09-30/], while the ~86.25% GM guide missed buyside 87.5–88.0% [T2 — Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/micron-rises-after-strong-revenue-guidance-offsets-slight-margin-miss] and H1 FY27 capex was set at $25B [T2 — Sources: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/micron-rises-after-strong-revenue-guidance-offsets-slight-margin-miss ; https://alphai.io/news/article/09-30/da623bc2efeab0ea/micron-technology-mu-plans-25-billion-capex-in-h1-fy2027-amid].
4. ●Initial reaction reads mixed-to-muted rather than euphoric — "flat after strong revenue guidance offsets slight margin miss" (ZeroHedge, full article read) [T2: Cross-validated — Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/micron-rises-after-strong-revenue-guidance-offsets-slight-margin-miss]; conflicting headlines: "MU +2%" (TMT Breakout first-takes) [T2 — snippet-level — Source: https://www.tmtbreakout.com/p/eod-wrap-micron-mu-first-takes] and "MU Stock Drops After Hours: Micron's Heightened Capex Forecast" (Yahoo) [T2 — snippet-level — Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mu-stock-drops-hours-micron-222532422.html]. This seat cannot price the after-hours tape with stock_price tonight; the open on 2026-10-01 settles it. [T3: Model estimate — unverified, subject to change]
5. ●Sector read-through stayed positive on paper: the preview's P5 trigger (FQ1 guide ≥ $58B) fired at $60–63B [T2 — MarketBeat/ZeroHedge above]; today's 8-name semi tape was flat ex-INTC (+0.50% average, +0.04% ex-INTC) [T1-derived — Phase 0], so the MU read-through lands at tomorrow's open, not today.

Overshoot context [T1-derived]: tonight's +8.46% guide overshoot sits inside the blind-guide band (+5.7% … +27.6%) but below the trailing-4 average 16.5% [(5.7 + 9.1 + 27.6 + 23.7) ÷ 4 = 16.525%] — a smaller overshoot than the recent pattern, consistent with the stock having already re-rated ~275% YTD.

1. ●After-hours reading is contested and this seat cannot price it: ZH full article says flat/muted; Yahoo headline says "drops" on heightened capex; TMT Breakout says "+2%". All three are shown with URLs; treat as [T2 — headline-level] until the open. Definitive test: MU's 2026-10-01 open vs the $1065.08 prior close and vs today's $1065.11 close (both [T1]).
2. ●Buyside GM bogey: guide 86.25% vs 87.5–88% buyside expectation, with the company promising Q1 is the margin floor for FY2027 — if that promise breaks, the "no memory maker ever held 86% for long" bear line (Motley Fool, 9/27) becomes the tape's dominant frame; FQ3 (Nov) is the falsification point [T2 — ZH full ; https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/27/micron-guided-to-an-86-gross-margin-no-memory-maker-has-ever-held-a-number-like-that-for-long/].
3. ●Capex/FCF: $25B H1 capex converts the beat into an FCF debate (Yahoo headline framing); watch whether the market reads capacity expansion as demand-validated or margin-dilutive [T2 — headline-level ; T3 interpretation].
4. ●Sector read-through at Monday's open: MU is the AI-memory supply-chain anchor in this basket (NVDA/AMD/AVGO/TSM/MRVL); a strong open confirms P5, a fade reopens the "expectations already priced" thesis from the morning preview [T3: Model estimate — unverified, subject to change].
5. ●Skepticism framing exists: Seeking Alpha's "These Numbers Don't Look Real" headline argues the HBM-driven margins/scale are hard to underwrite — flag as a contrarian input, not a confirmed analyst position [T2 — snippet-level — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4951192-micron-q4-2026-these-numbers-dont-look-real].

• ●No after-hours/next-session price: stock_price returns the 16:00 EDT close as its post-market value; the earnings call (4:30 PM ET) followed it. No overnight price exists in this wake-up's data.
• ●No full-text reads for several key outlets: CNBC, Micron IR, MarketBeat, 247wallst, Yahoo article fetches returned truncated/empty; SeekingAlpha and TheStreet returned HTTP 403; TMT Breakout is paywalled. Those numbers are snippet-level [T2] and labeled as such; ZeroHedge was the only outlet where the numbers came from a full article read.
• ●Gross margin print conflict unresolved (87% vs 85.95% across two outlets); segment guide-by-business-unit detail for FQ1 not retrieved.
• ●No FQ1 segment mix or HBM pricing disclosure beyond capex and GM.

1. ●Micron MU Q4 FY2026 earnings results September 30 2026 revenue EPS actual beat miss → 10 hits (CNBC, Micron IR, TheStreet, BusinessInsider, alphai, unite.ai, ZeroHedge, Quartz, TipRanks).
2. ●Micron MU Q1 FY2027 guidance revenue gross margin → first attempt errored (SearXNG timeout: "context deadline exceeded"); shortened retry → 10 hits (ZeroHedge, MarketBeat, alphai, SeekingAlpha, 247wallst, Micron IR ×2, TheStreet, Yahoo, TMT Breakout).
3. ●Micron MU after hours stock price reaction September 30 2026 earnings → 10 hits (CNBC, Yahoo, earnings-watcher, TipRanks, public.com, AOL, UnusualWhales, stockanalysis).
4. ●Micron MU Q4 FY2026 actual results revenue $54.23 billion EPS $33.42 guidance Q1 FY2027 → 10 hits (CNBC, IR, ZeroHedge, FinancialContent/StockStory, BusinessInsider, TheStreet, TechPowerUp, beincrypto, unite.ai, TMT Breakout).
5. ●Micron MU stock after hours September 30 2026 flat down reaction earnings → 10 hits (MarketBeat report page, Yahoo, TipRanks, stockanalysis, CNBC among others).
6. ●Micron MU Q4 FY2026 gross margin 87% 86% actual vs guidance Q1 FY2027 guidance details → 10 hits (ZeroHedge, TheStreet, TMT Breakout, hudson-labs, trefis, SeekingAlpha ×2, Fool ×2, Binance Square).

• ●Fetch attempts: Micron IR (truncated), CNBC (empty), MarketBeat (nav-only), ZeroHedge (full numbers retrieved), SeekingAlpha (403), 247wallst (empty), TheStreet (403), Yahoo article (empty), TMT Breakout (paywalled — general tape text only). Two dedup notices (Yahoo/CNBC re-fetch blocked with "already called with these exact arguments") — data was already in-context; no data loss implied.

• ●[T1: Verified] — value returned verbatim by the stock_price skill this wake-up.
• ●[T1-derived: arithmetic listed] — derived in-line from listed [T1]/[T2] values with the formula shown; not an upstream value.
• ●[T2: Cross-validated] — externally sourced claim with inline URL; snippet-level noted where the full article could not be read this wake-up.
• ●[T3: Model estimate — unverified, subject to change] — this seat's own probabilistic estimate, not from any feed.

Generated by prediction_conductor, soul v1.12.1 (validation architecture per v1.5.9).

美光 (MU) 2026财年四季度财报 — 盘后核验与晨报记分卡 — 2026-09-30

调用记录:

• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='MU') → $1065.11，2026-09-30 收盘（16:00 EDT 收市）
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='AMD') → $611.76
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='NVDA') → $228.38
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='AVGO') → $351.19
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='TSM') → $456.19
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='INTC') → $120.23
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='QCOM') → $184.04
• ●Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='MRVL') → $264.21

⚠️ 时点说明（必读）： 上表报价为常规时段 16:00 EDT 收盘价（技能时间戳 ≈ 2026-09-30 20:00Z）。美光 FQ4 发布与 2:30 PM MT / 4:30 PM ET 电话会在收盘之后进行。因此上述价格均不含 FQ4 财报信息；今晚媒体所报的盘后波动无法通过 stock_price 技能读取（其盘后值即 16:00 收盘价）。2026-10-01 的开盘价才是定论。

1. ●美光今晚发布 2026财年四季度财报，头条数据全面超预期： 营收 $54.23B vs 预期 $51.07B [T2: 交叉验证 — 来源: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/micron-mu-q4-earnings-report-2026.html]；调整后 EPS $33.42 [T2: 交叉验证 — 快照级 — 来源: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/micron-mu-q4-earnings-report-2026.html ; https://www.thestreet.com/latest-news/micron-q4-2026-earnings-call-live-updates-of-mu-earnings-outlook]。
2. ●晨报主预测 — 营收高于 $50.0B 指引中值、基准区间 $51.5–54.0B — 判定正确： 实际 $54.23B 触及/略超基准区间上沿，高出指引中值 +8.46% [T1-derived: (54.23 − 50.00) ÷ 50.00 = +8.46%；指引依据 T2 — https://theta.md/us-stock-analysis-tsmc/2026/08/30/micron-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview/]。
3. ●FQ1 2027财年指引果然是当晚的决定性变量 —— 与晨报论点一致 —— 但摩檫力来自毛利率与资本开支，而非营收降速： 指引 $60–63B 远超共识 $57.2B [T2 — 快照级 — 来源: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/guidance-micron-technology-nasdaq-mu-releases-q1-2027-earnings-guidance-2026-09-30/]；而 ~86.25% 毛利率指引不及买方 87.5–88.0% [T2 — 来源: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/micron-rises-after-strong-revenue-guidance-offsets-slight-margin-miss]；2027财年上半年资本开支定为 $25B [T2 — 来源: 同上 ; https://alphai.io/news/article/09-30/da623bc2efeab0ea/micron-technology-mu-plans-25-billion-capex-in-h1-fy2027-amid]。
4. ●初步盘后反应读作"平淡"而非"狂欢" — ZeroHedge 全文标题即"revenue guidance 抵消轻微毛利率 miss，股价收平" [T2: 交叉验证 — 来源: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/micron-rises-after-strong-revenue-guidance-offsets-slight-margin-miss]；另有互相矛盾的标题：TMT Breakout 称 "MU +2%" [T2 — 快照级 — 来源: https://www.tmtbreakout.com/p/eod-wrap-micron-mu-first-takes]；Yahoo 称"盘后下跌：资本开支上调" [T2 — 快照级 — 来源: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mu-stock-drops-hours-micron-222532422.html]。本席今晚无法用 stock_price 对盘后行情定价；2026-10-01 开盘见分晓。[T3: 模型估算 — 未验证，可能变更]
5. ●板块传导账面上仍然成立： 晨报 P5 触发条件（FQ1 指引 ≥ $58B）以 $60–63B 达标 [T2 — MarketBeat/ZeroHedge 见上]；今日八票半导体盘面除 INTC 外基本走平（均值 +0.50%、除 INTC 后 +0.04%）[T1-derived — Phase 0]，传导效应落在明早开盘而非今天。

超预期幅度背景 [T1-derived]： 今晚 +8.46% 的指引超标幅度处于盲指区间内（+5.7% … +27.6%），但低于最近四季均值 16.5% [(5.7 + 9.1 + 27.6 + 23.7) ÷ 4 = 16.525%] —— 相较近几季的超预期惯性偏小，与股价年内已重估约 275% 相符。

1. ●盘后读数互相矛盾、本席无法为其定价： ZH 全文称平；Yahoo 标题称"因资本开支上调而跌"；TMT Breakout 称"+2%"。三条均带 URL；开盘前一律按 [T2 — 标题级] 处置。决定性检验：MU 2026-10-01 开盘价 vs $1065.08 前收与 $1065.11 今收（均为 [T1]）。
2. ●买方毛利率锚： 指引 86.25% vs 买方 87.5–88%，公司承诺 Q1 是 FY2027 毛利率铁底 —— 若承诺破，"没有存储厂长期撑住 86%"（Motley Fool, 9/27）成为主导叙事；FQ3（11月）为证伪点 [T2 — ZH全文 ; https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/27/micron-guided-to-an-86-gross-margin-no-memory-maker-has-ever-held-a-number-like-that-for-long/]。
3. ●资本开支/自由现金流： 上半年 $25B 把"超预期"转成"FCF 之争"（Yahoo标题框架）；市场把产能扩张读作需求背书还是边际摊薄，待观察 [T2 — 标题级 ; T3 解读]。
4. ●周一开盘的板块传导： MU 是本篮子（NVDA/AMD/AVGO/TSM/MRVL）的 AI 存储锚；强势开盘确认 P5，反之则重启晨报"预期已定价"论题 [T3: 模型估算 — 未验证，可能变更]。
5. ●怀疑派框架存在： Seeking Alpha 标题"These Numbers Don't Look Real"主张 HBM 驱动的毛利率/规模难以定价 —— 作为反向输入标注，而非已证实的分析师立场 [T2 — 快照级 — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4951192-micron-q4-2026-these-numbers-dont-look-real]。

• ●无盘后/隔夜价格： stock_price 的盘后值即 16:00 EDT 收盘价；电话会（4:30 PM ET）在收盘之后。本次唤醒数据中不存在隔夜价。
• ●多家关键媒体全文不可读： CNBC、美光IR、MarketBeat、247wallst、Yahoo 文章抓取返回截断/空；SeekingAlpha 与 TheStreet 返回 HTTP 403；TMT Breakout 付费墙。相关数字一律快照级 [T2] 并已标注；ZeroHedge 是唯一数值来自全文阅读的出处。
• ●毛利率口径冲突未决（87% vs 85.95%，两家媒体）；FQ1 分部指引mix与 HBM 定价细节未检索到。
• ●无 FQ1 分部拆分指引披露（除资本开支与毛利率外）。

1. ●Micron MU Q4 FY2026 earnings results September 30 2026 revenue EPS actual beat miss → 10 条命中（CNBC、美光IR、TheStreet、BusinessInsider、alphai、unite.ai、ZeroHedge、Quartz、TipRanks）。
2. ●Micron MU Q1 FY2027 guidance revenue gross margin → 首次报错（SearXNG 超时: "context deadline exceeded"）；缩短重试 → 10 条命中（ZeroHedge、MarketBeat、alphai、SeekingAlpha、247wallst、美光IR ×2、TheStreet、Yahoo、TMT Breakout）。
3. ●Micron MU after hours stock price reaction September 30 2026 earnings → 10 条命中（CNBC、Yahoo、earnings-watcher、TipRanks、public.com、AOL、UnusualWhales、stockanalysis）。
4. ●Micron MU Q4 FY2026 actual results revenue $54.23 billion EPS $33.42 guidance Q1 FY2027 → 10 条命中（CNBC、IR、ZeroHedge、FinancialContent/StockStory、BusinessInsider、TheStreet、TechPowerUp、beincrypto、unite.ai、TMT Breakout）。
5. ●Micron MU stock after hours September 30 2026 flat down reaction earnings → 10 条命中（MarketBeat 报告页、Yahoo、TipRanks、stockanalysis、CNBC 等）。
6. ●Micron MU Q4 FY2026 gross margin 87% 86% actual vs guidance Q1 FY2027 guidance details → 10 条命中（ZeroHedge、TheStreet、TMT Breakout、hudson-labs、trefis、SeekingAlpha ×2、Fool ×2、Binance Square）。

• ●抓取尝试： 美光IR（截断）、CNBC（空）、MarketBeat（仅导航）、ZeroHedge（全文数值已取得）、SeekingAlpha（403）、247wallst（空）、TheStreet（403）、Yahoo 文章（空）、TMT Breakout（付费墙 — 仅盘面通稿）。两次去重提示（Yahoo/CNBC 重复抓取被"already called with these exact arguments"拦下）—— 数据本就在上下文中，非数据缺失。

• ●[T1: 已验证] — 本次唤醒 stock_price 技能逐字返回的数值。
• ●[T1-derived: 算式已列] — 由已列出的 [T1]/[T2] 数值现场推导且算式写在行内；非上游返回值。
• ●[T2: 交叉验证] — 附内联 URL 的外部论断；快照级处均已注明（本次唤醒无法读取全文）。
• ●[T3: 模型估算 — 未验证，可能变更] — 本席自身的概率估算，非任何数据源。

Generated by prediction_conductor, soul v1.12.1 (validation architecture per v1.5.9).